Global trade rarely stands still—even when the headlines suggest otherwise. The forces shaping international commerce are moving faster and growing more complex each year. As businesses look beyond short-term volatility and toward long-term strategy, understanding where trade is headed has never been more important. Forecasting for 2026 isn’t about predicting every disruption, it’s about identifying the trends that will define opportunity, risk, and growth in the years ahead. By examining recent trade performance and emerging global patterns, we can better position exporters to adapt and succeed in the evolving international marketplace.
Looking Back: 2024 & 2025
After the uneven recovery years following the pandemic, 2024 marked a period of stabilization for international trade. Growth returned at a moderate but consistent pace, ushering in a total of $33 trillion in the trade of goods and services with strong performances in energy products, agricultural commodities, and advanced technologies.1
In 2025, that momentum largely held. Trade volumes continued to grow, though not without challenges. Lingering geopolitical tensions, supply chain realignments, and climate-related disruptions kept exporters and importers on their toes.2 Still, demand for clean energy technologies, semiconductors, and AI-enabled equipment surged, offsetting softness in some traditional manufacturing sectors.
For U.S. exporters—and states like North Dakota—agriculture, energy, and value-added manufacturing remained pillars of trade activity. While transportation bottlenecks and regulatory complexity persisted, businesses that diversified markets and strengthened logistics strategies were better positioned to weather uncertainty.
Looking Ahead: 2026
So, what does 2026 have in store for global trade? Most forecasts suggest cautious optimism. International organizations project continued growth in global trade of goods and services, though at a more measured pace than the post-pandemic rebound years. Inflation is expected to remain relatively contained, giving businesses more predictable cost structures and encouraging cross-border investment.
Emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa are anticipated to drive a significant share of trade expansion.3 At the same time, nearshoring and “friend-shoring” trends are likely to reshape supply chains, with trade increasingly flowing within trusted regional networks rather than strictly along traditional global routes.
Technology will remain a defining force in 2026. Demand for green energy solutions, battery storage, electric vehicles, and AI-driven systems is expected to grow further, opening new export opportunities—but also intensifying competition. Businesses that invest in innovation and compliance will be best positioned to capitalize on these trends.
Preparing for What’s Next
As 2025 winds down and 2026 comes into view, now is the ideal time to reflect on your exporting successes and setbacks from the past year. Where did your strategy pay off? Where did unexpected obstacles arise? And how can you strengthen your operations to navigate an increasingly complex trade environment?
While uncertainty is unavoidable, preparation is powerful. Staying informed, diversifying markets, and building flexibility into your supply chain can help turn potential disruptions into manageable challenges. As always, the NDTO is here to support your business every step of the way. A new year is on the horizon, and with the right planning, 2026 can be one of opportunity, growth, and resilience.
2Global trade in 2025: Resilience under pressure | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
3 Emerging markets in Asia, Latin America attract investors amid trade tensions | S&P Global